CONFIRMED: A CME IS COMING: Yesterday's
X2.2-class solar flare (described below) produced a CME, and it has an Earth-directed component. Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded a lopsided halo emerging from the blast site:
The flank of the CME will probably strike Earth on
Feb. 20th. Geomagnetic storms ranging from category
G1 (Minor) to
G3 (Strong) are possible after the CME arrives. NOAA analysts are currently modeling the CME's internal structure and trajectory. Refinements to this forecast may be made, depending on their results.
STRONG X2-CLASS SOLAR FLARE (UPDATED): New sunspot AR3229 erupted on Feb. 17th (2016 UT), producing a strong
X2.2-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the extreme ultraviolet pulse:
Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas. Mariners, aviators and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal and other unusual propagation efftects at frequencies below 30 MHz for more than an hour after the flare.
The
long-duration flare also launched a
solar tsunami. It is the shadowy shock wave in this 193 angstrom movie from SDO:
The US Air Force has reported a
Type II solar radio burst coming from the tsunami. The drift rate of the burst suggests a shock speed greater than 2400 km/s (5.4 million mph). Solar tsunamis and Type II radio bursts are closely linked to CMEs, and we should expect to see one soon emerging from the blast site.
Update: The CME has emerged, and it has an Earth-directed component. ETA: Feb. 20th. Geomagnetic storms ranging from category
G1 (Minor) to
G3 (Strong) are possible after the CME arrives.